September marks a critical juncture in the textile and apparel industry, as the old fiscal year gives way to the new. According to the latest statistics released by the General Administration of Customs, in the first eight months of 2026, exports of textiles and apparel totaled US$203.31 billion, with the cumulative growth rate continuing to expand compared to the previous seven months. In August alone, exports reached US$28.57 billion, up 7.7% year on year—marking the third consecutive month of robust growth. The apparel segment showed particularly strong momentum, serving as the primary driver behind the overall upward trend in export performance. However, in contrast to the steady performance on the export side, the upstream raw-materials market experienced a reversal of trends during the same period.

Beyond export data, developments on the raw‑material side have become the industry’s primary focus recently. According to the weekly report released by the Cotton Industry Association, from September 14 to 18, domestic cotton prices continued to fluctuate and decline. The benchmark Zhengzhou cotton futures contract averaged 16,014 yuan per ton for the week, down 659 yuan per ton from the previous week; meanwhile, the cotton price index—reflecting the market for standard‑grade lint cotton—averaged 17,667 yuan per ton, a decrease of 479 yuan per ton compared with the prior week. Since the state‑owned reserve cotton began its phased releases on July 20, spot supplies have been steadily injected into the market, with cumulative sales exceeding 250,000 tons, effectively bolstering spot availability ahead of the full‑scale arrival of new‑crop cotton. However, as cotton prices have softened, the transaction rate of these releases has also eased from its earlier peak levels.

In contrast to the decline in spot prices, the cost anchor for new‑season raw materials has shifted noticeably higher. Since September, Xinjiang’s cotton‑growing regions have entered the peak boll‑opening phase, with crop development advancing ahead of the seasonal norm; sporadic trial picking has already begun in southern Xinjiang, and ginning mills have seen a modest uptick in operating rates. According to industry surveys, the initial price for hand‑picked cotton in southern Xinjiang is around RMB 8.41 per kilogram, while machine‑picked cotton is expected to open at RMB 7.20–7.50 per kilogram—both significantly above last year’s level of RMB 6.20 per kilogram. Meanwhile, Cotton Information Network estimates that domestic cotton production for the new season will total 7.42 million tonnes, down from the previous year, with Xinjiang’s planted area also contracting compared with the prior year. On the international front, the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s September Supply and Demand Report revised global cotton output for the 2026/27 marketing year down to approximately 25.54 million tonnes, a year‑on‑year reduction of 1.008 million tonnes. Downstream textile producers are likewise adopting a more cautious approach to raw‑material procurement, focusing primarily on replenishing essential inventories on an as‑needed basis, which has heightened market wait-and-see sentiment.

Kaiyuan International is a Nantong‑based apparel exporter to Japan. Established in September 2008, the company organizes its operations into six business divisions—segmented by customer and product category—and maintains a dedicated fabric department to coordinate upstream fabric sourcing. Its product mix is primarily women’s wear, accounting for roughly 50%, followed by children’s wear at 40% and men’s wear at 10%. The company operates two parallel production lines—one for woven fabrics and one for knitted fabrics—and exports all finished goods to Japan, serving leading Japanese trading houses such as Nippon Steel & Sumitomo Metal Corporation, Mitsui & Co., Marubeni, Toyoshima, Tamura Koma, and Takisada, among others. Manufacturing is handled by its own facility, Nantong Toyo Fashion Co., Ltd., located in the Xindian Town Industrial Park of Rudong County. From fabric receipt and sample development through pattern making to final garment production, the entire process is seamlessly integrated into a single, end‑to‑end chain—this vertical integration is the key to maintaining steady delivery schedules even during periods of raw material price volatility.

During cycles of raw-material price volatility, the Fabric Division’s expertise gives Kaiyuan International significantly greater flexibility than purely trading‑focused companies. Leveraging its fabric division, the company maintains continuous oversight of upstream yarn, grey fabric, and dyeing & finishing processes; at the order‑quotation stage, it simultaneously calculates and locks in fabric costs, while preparing multiple alternative solutions tailored to each customer’s cost‑range, thereby minimizing the pass‑through of raw‑material fluctuations into finished‑garment pricing. On the production side, the company adheres to proactive quality and compliance screening, moving fabric‑testing upstream to the procurement stage and rigorously aligning with Japan’s JIS textile standards and chemical‑substance management regulations. In terms of production scheduling, long‑lead‑time orders are broken down into multiple delivery batches, enabling the company to meet customers’ needs for shorter lead times.

From a regional perspective, Nantong is a key industrial hub for China’s textile and apparel trade. According to data released by Nantong Customs, in the first eight months of 2026, the city’s total foreign trade value reached RMB 309.32 billion, up 11.2% year on year. In August alone, imports and exports exceeded RMB 40.6 billion, underscoring the sector’s robust resilience. A well‑integrated industrial chain, mature dyeing and finishing capabilities, and a relatively concentrated supply of fabrics give Nantong-based enterprises greater flexibility to manage cost fluctuations, while also providing stable industrial support for export firms like Kaisen International that are deeply rooted in the Japanese market.

Industry observers believe that the cost of acquiring new‑crop cotton will be the primary driver of domestic cotton prices in the fourth quarter. A shift upward in the cost anchor is expected to narrow the pricing flexibility of downstream apparel companies when setting quotes for autumn/winter orders and those for next spring. For exporters to Japan, securing stable raw‑material supply chains and implementing proactive quality‑control measures are becoming more critical competitive differentiators than short‑term price advantages. According to a representative from Kaiyuan International, the Japanese market imposes stringent requirements on garment quality, eco‑friendly fabrics, and compliance standards. The company plans to leverage its centralized fabric procurement and robust alternative‑sourcing capabilities to maintain product quality and consistent delivery schedules amid raw‑material price volatility, while continuously refining its product mix and deepening long‑term partnerships with Japanese trading‑company clients.